The Polls are a Mystery

Twice today I have come across a Democratic talking point that has caught my ear.  I believe it to be a talking point because the mouths I have heard it from are Barack Obama’s campaign manager David Plouffe and House Speaker Pelosi.

Their point was larger than what I am going to talk about but essentially it says that the Obama-team is not as concerned with the polls as the press, or for that matter, the nation.

Plouffe – “We don’t pay attention to national polls.”

Pelosi – “I’m very comfortable with those polls.”

Why do I find this interesting?  Well for one I’ve gotten a bit annoyed with hearing about how the Democrats are “PANICKED” and how in one commentator’s words, “the luster has come off of Sen. Obama.”  Of course, I am not so naive as to think that simply because one of Obama’s consiglieres tells me to not worry, that I should not worry.

Instead, I look to the logic.
Pelosi – “These are polls of likely voters.  Likely voters are people who have voted in the last two elections, and they are likely to vote again.”

Plouffe – The electorate in 2008 “is going to be changed in some fundamental ways from 2004.”

The two made such similar points that I cannot help but see a conference call or talking points sheet being responsible.

The importance of it all struck home to me when I read the Pelosi piece.  I have been a bit concerned about a perceived drop in the polls.  There has been a change in my cynicism in the past year.  The interminable march that was the Bush Presidency nears its closure and there is a chance that things can get better.  This drop in the polls rejuvenated the cynicism of old.  Another four years of policy decisions that I disagree with, of cowboys who believe the world is their oyster, of Karl Rove on White House speed dial, and of Democrats making snide aloof remarks from the wings.  I do not want that.

What these two articles did not elaborate on for me was youth.  To have voted in the past two presidential elections a voter must be 26. I am 27.  That means that by these talking points, virtually no one younger than myself counts in the polls.  If this is true then it is a major gap in the polls.  They would thus skew towards the older and more conservative.

It has also been brought to my attention that these polls can only reach potential voters who have land lines.  Strike two.  I know so many people in my age group that do not have a land line.  I also know many of my parents friends that would not know the term “land line” despite having one.

I hesitate to take it at face value and I have a hunch that the pollsters are smart enough to have fixed this to some degree by adding in single voters but I imagine there is still a bias since there seem to be a good number of people who have never voted and thus would never be contacted.  I think Obama takes the lion’s share of these.

~Forth